You can bet on it: Kansas No. 1!
Posted: Wednesday, October 17, 2007 10:58 PM
With six or seven games under every belt, it’s time to check in on what I call the “alumni approval index,” which is derived from the combination of a team’s overall record with its record versus the point spread (in games that were on the board). For a lot of alums, just winning games isn’t enough. That’s only half of their happiness, if you know what I mean.
I know that point spreads attempt to even out betting rather than serve as scientific predictions of outcomes (Stanford at USC only missed by 42 points), but the guys in Las Vegas know more than most and I would trust their evaluations over those ridiculous six BCS computers … or the Harris Poll for that matter.
In any case, the lines are omnipresent these days and certainly a valid indicator of satisfaction if not success.
Take for instance, USC, where a meager index of .583 (5-1 this season, 2-4 against the spread, 7-5 combined) has alumni approval sliding down to pre-Leinart levels.
At the top end of the “alumni approval index” there are always some illuminating confirmations. When a team not only defeats the opponents on its schedule, but also overcomes the handicap that the oddsmakers placed on the contest, then you are really talking about a job well done.
Kansas hasn’t played a top-notch schedule, but the Jayhawks have taken care of business and are the only team with an unblemished index. And maybe that lone Harris Poll voter who inexplicably placed Arizona State at No. 1 was impressed by Sun Devils being the team in the country with 12 combined “wins.”
Here are the programs surrounded by the most smiles these days:
Kansas 1.00 (6-0, 5-0)
South Florida .909 (6-0, 4-1)
Missouri .909 (5-1, 5-0)
Arizona State .857 (7-0, 5-2)
Boston College .846 (7-0, 4-2)
Ohio State .846 (7-0, 4-2)
Cincinnati .846 (6-1, 5-1)
Kentucky .846 (6-1, 5-1)
Oregon .833 (5-1, 5-1)
West Virginia .833 (5-1, 5-1)
Connecticut .818 (5-1, 4-1)
On the other end of the spectrum, if team not only loses its games, but also can’t put the points provided by the spread to good use, they’ve really got issues. Being worse than even the wiseguys think you are is a bad place to be.
The following teams aren’t getting much respect and deserve even less:
Arizona .308 (2-5, 2-4)
Minnesota .231 (1-6, 2-4)
N.C. State .182 (1-5, 1-4)
SMU .167 (1-5, 1-5)
Northern Illinois .167 (1-6, 1-4)
Syracuse .143 (1-6, 1-6)
Marshall .091 (0-6, 1-4)
Colorado State .083 (0-6, 1-5)
The “Year of the Upset” has created havoc among the undefeated and one-loss teams, but below that grouping there are a handful of formerly ranked teams that have not only been major disappointments to their demanding fan bases, but also to those who have backed them with a few bucks (which, of course, are often times the same disgruntle folks).
USC was one Joe McKnight punt return away from joining this dubious list:
Texas A&M .538 (5-2, 2-4)
Alabama .500 (5-2, 1-4)
Florida State .500 (4-2, 2-4)
Wisconsin .462 (5-2, 1-5)
Louisville .462 (4-3, 2-4)
Nebraska .357 (4-3, 1-6)
Arkansas .400 (3-3, 1-3)
And here is how some other teams rank in the midseason “alumni approval index.”
South Carolina .769 (6-1, 4-2)
Texas Tech .769 (6-1, 4-2)
Hawaii .750 (7-0, 2-3)
Kansas State .727 (4-2, 4-1)
Oklahoma .714 (6-1, 4-3)
Illinois .692 (5-2, 4-2)
Indiana .692 (5-2, 4-2)
Virginia Tech .667 (6-1, 2-3)
California .667 (5-1, 3-3)
Tennessee .667 (4-2, 4-2)
UCLA .667 (4-2, 4-2)
LSU .643 (6-1, 3-4)
Virginia .643 (6-1, 3-4)
Auburn .643 (5-2, 4-3)
Michigan State .643 (5-2, 4-3)
Penn State .643 (5-2, 4-3)
Texas .643 (5-2, 4-3)
Boise State .636 (5-1, 2-3)
Florida .636 (4-2, 3-2)
Rutgers .636 (4-2, 3-2)
Georgia .615 (5-2, 3-3)
Michigan .615 (5-2, 3-3)
Oklahoma State .615 (4-3, 4-2)
Purdue .583 (5-2, 2-3)
Wake Forest .583 (4-2, 3-3)
Colorado .571 (4-3, 4-3)
Clemson .545 (4-2, 2-3)
Maryland .545 (4-2, 2-3)
Georgia Tech .538 (4-3, 3-3)
Oregon State .538 (4-3, 3-3)
Iowa .500 (3-4, 4-3)
Mississippi State .462 (4-3, 2-4)
Northwestern .462 (4-3, 2-4)
TCU .462 (4-3, 2-4)
North Carolina .462 (2-5, 4-2)
Miami (Fla.) .429 (4-3, 2-5)
Pittsburgh .364 (2-4, 2-3)
Mississippi .357 (2-5, 3-4)
Notre Dame .286 (1-6, 3-4)
Idaho .231 (1-6, 2-4)
Iowa State .231 (1-6, 2-4)
