2 losses = BCS title game
Posted: Tuesday, October 23, 2007 9:15 PM
When Kirk Gibson limped to the plate and homered in his one and only appearance in the 1988 World Series, Vin Scully said: “In a year that has been so improbable, the impossible has happened!”
I heard that famous call in my head this morning after thinking about of how this 2007 college football season might end. Only this time, the Florida Gators were the ones taking advantage of a hanging slider and a handful of one-loss teams were collectively playing the role of the dismayed Oakland Athletics.
Yes, in a season that has provided little clarity and even less stability, are you ready for a national champion with two losses? If not, get ready.
Sure, the Gators have back-to-back losses to Auburn and LSU on their resume, but with perfection in very short supply in today’s college football and upsets as common as iPhones, losing it what it used to be. Losses are now evaluated like loans, and in some cases forgiven altogether.
If the Gators win at Georgia on Saturday and run the table to finish out the regular season as SEC East champs, they’ll likely face LSU in the conference title game. The Tigers could very well be the No. 1 team in the nation at that point and a revenge win by Florida will really carry a lot of weight with the polls.
With so many elite teams already tagged with losses, it has fallen upon the human pollsters to make decisions based on personal opinions like never before and we know how dangerous that can be.
The computers aren’t any more reliable, running their numbers on strength of schedule and all sorts of other quirky things. When the final BCS rankings get spit out, as many as five teams might be able to make a good case to be included in the national championship game on Jan. 7.
If either Ohio State or Boston College is able to stay unbeaten, they’ll be a lock, but if that’s the case, there still will be at least three teams holding its breath for the go-ahead to play in the big one.
Even though they’ve already perfected the “rebuilding season,” the top-ranked Buckeyes still have lots of work to do and will have to make it through the gauntlet of the Big Ten’s “best” (at Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois, at Michigan). A loss in any one of those games and Ohio State won’t make it to New Orleans. The only thing weaker than the Big Ten this season is the Buckeyes’ non-conference slate and a two-loss SEC champion would edge out Ohio State.
A similar control-your-own-destiny scenario exists for No. 2 Boston College. But the Eagles are their way to losing at Virginia Tech on Thursday night. That loss will send Boston College, which owns non-ACC wins over Army, UMass, Bowling Green and Notre Dame, tumbling out of contention.
If Les Miles wins his high-stakes poker match with Nick Saban in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 3, LSU is a good bet to be one of the teams playing for the title, but only if they continue on and run their table, bringing the SEC title to Baton Rouge.
Oklahoma and West Virginia are the best bets in the Big 12 and Big East, respectively, and are not likely to be overtaken by a two-loss SEC champ if it comes to that. However, with the way things are going in this topsy-turvy season, it’s hard to expect the expected in any game, let alone a string of five.
That is the case even more so in the Pac-10 where Oregon, Arizona State and USC are still in the hunt to grab one of the coveted two slots in the BCS title game, but each team sees the other two still looming on their schedule. And all three still have to play schizophrenic UCLA, as well.
It’s looking like the Pac-10 championship will be shared by a pair of teams with two conference losses, especially if the Trojans are able to return to form and leave Eugene with a victory on Saturday.
In 2001, Colorado pounded Nebraska, 62-36, in the regular-season finale, beat Texas in the Big 12 title game to avenge a loss to the Longhorns in the middle of the season, but also lost to Fresno State in the season opener. Colorado’s two losses combined with a slew of other upsets late in the season meant that the Cornhuskers undeservingly edged out the Buffs and Pac-10 champion Oregon for the right to get trounced, 37-14, by national champion Miami in the Rose Bowl.
With no “Fresno State” in the equation this season, Florida might not only be “Kirk Gibson,” it also might be a more fortunate “Colorado.”
