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John Tamanaha

MSNBC.com contributor John Tamanaha tackles the hot topics in college football. From title contenders and Heisman hopefuls to coaches on the hot seat and recruiting battles, no issue is out of bounds.



More disappointment for Ducks?

Posted: Sunday, November 04, 2007 11:38 PM

With a month to go, the BCS is its usual mishmash.  More often than not, however, the process works itself out. In the past nine seasons, the top two teams in the coaches poll have met in the “national championship game” six times.

But this season has been so wacky that it seems safe to assume that the teams selected to play for the BCS title will be called into serious question, whether or not they match the polls.

As many as four teams could end up making a legitimate claim at being in the top two.

That has got to be making the folks in Eugene pretty edgy these days.  After all, they’ve already been burned by the BCS twice before.

After winning the 2001 Pac-10 championship and finishing the regular season as the consensus No. 2 team in the polls, Oregon suffered the indignity of getting booted from the Rose Bowl (which hosted the title game that season) in favor of a Nebraska team that hadn’t won the Big 12 title or even its own division, but still got the go-ahead to face top-ranked Miami.

Relegated to the Fiesta Bowl, the Ducks overcame their disappointment and registered a convincing 38-16 victory over Big 12 champ Colorado, which had annihilated the Cornhuskers, 62-36, in the regular-season finale.  Oregon put itself in position to claim the Associated Press’ national championship if the Hurricanes got toppled in Pasadena, but the Huskers continued their slide, getting destroyed by Miami, 37-14.

Four years later, the Ducks got squashed again.  This time they got stepped on by a contract rather than a computer.  The agreement Notre Dame has with the BCS, which calls for the Fighting Irish to be automatically placed in a BCS bowl if they finish in the top eight, locked up a trip to the Fiesta Bowl for the two-loss Golden Domers (who played only three ranked teams and beat only one).

The Irish snuck in at No. 6, leaving out one-loss Oregon, which finished at No. 5 and only lost to top-ranked USC. The Ducks had to settle for a humbling trip to the Holiday Bowl and then watched on TV as the Irish got blasted by Ohio State, 34-20, in the Fiesta.

Of course, the Notre Dame clause won’t get in the way of Oregon -- or any team -- this year, but that doesn’t mean the Ducks won’t get pushed around again.

Currently sitting in the dreaded No. 3 spot, there are more than a few scenarios that could get in the way of Oregon playing for the national championship even if they run the table to capture the Pac-10 title and finish 11-1.

Not having to play in a conference title game is a big benefit for the Ducks -- and Ohio State -- in terms of trying to maintaining a sparkling record, but it also means that you have one less opportunity to wow the voters or improve upon the numbers that get fed into those six computers.

No. 2 LSU won’t budge from its spot if it is able to cap off a 12-1 season with a victory in the SEC Championship Game.

And the trio of Big 12 teams that sit directly below the Ducks -- No. 4 Kansas, No. 5 Oklahoma and No. 6 Missouri -- could produce a survivor that has enough juice to leap over Oregon.

With that being said and recent history serving as a backdrop, the Michigan Wolverines just picked up a ton of new fans in the Pacific Northwest.  It looks like Ohio State might need to be out for Oregon to be in.

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lets all hope that the third times the charm. the ducks deserve this and the country knows this, now get up off your colective asses and do the right thing. we all know that most years b.c.s. translates to b.s.!! dont let it happen to us again!@#  
The igorance and self import of East Coast sport writers is aming me belive that Oregon could beat LSU and BC and Florida and Ohio and would sytill be ranked behnd them in the polls. Look the moroins that vote for the Harris Poll and the Coaches Poll are huge components of the BCS numbers. LSU has played a series of weak opponents..poorly... and LSU hasn't played anyone of any note. Oregon has defeated a whole series of top 10 teams. Admit it, LSU couldn't even play in the PAC10. They would, at best, be a middle ranked team in our conference. Same for Ohio. Boston College would be at the bottom. Hey out there - there is more to the West and California. You already have robbed the University of Washington and Oregon State of their legitimate National Championships. If Oregon doesn't even get to play for this one, it's time we took a serious look at doing away with the BCS; at least having the PAC10 opting out. Blindness and ignorant slef import is one thing. Blatent bigotry is something else entirely!
I truly believe that OSU and ORE are the two best teams in the country after watching all the top teams play this past weekend.  I actually hope that Kansas runs the table and then doesnt get a shot so maybe enough people will see how wrong this so called national championship is and hopefully something will change soon.
The team that OSU, LSU, or Kansas would fear the most is the one in Eugene, Oregon.
You really feel if LSU wins out, having beaten 5 ranked teams(6 if they play Tenn or Fla in conf championship) with sloppy wins, will keep it's #2 spot over Orgegon with wins over USC and Az. State and more convincing wins over lesser teams? Why?
What a bunch of crap! I am sick to death of the BCS. What a joke. Disgusting. It's called a play-off. Look into it.
GREAT READ!  Thanks for reminding everyone how Oregon has already been hosed twice by the BCS!!  Throw in the time Cal got worked by the 'Mack Brown cry for Texas' routine, and USC getting passed over for the Nat'l Championship game and it really looks like they [BCS toadies] are completely biased against the PAC-10.  
Hey John,

I appreciate your scenario's for Oregon getting left out of the National Championship game but you also picked Oregon to lose last week against Arizona State. A game I might add that Oregon completely controlled from start to finish. Yes and that was the number 4 ranked undefeated Sun Devils. Are you now jumping on the Oregon bandwagon? Anyone who watches Oregon play knows that they are possibly the most talented team in College football this year. The problem for Oregon is where they are located. Oregon is finally getting the respect they have deserved for years. It would be an absolute travesty for those kids to get left out of a shot at a National Championship.I'm saying all of this and I live in Missouri. We have a great team this year. The real issue should be how Ohio State is ranked #1. Their non-conference schedule was pathetic. Youngstown, Akron, and Kent State. Look at what those three teams have done this year. If anyone should be nervous it should be Ohio State. Michigan can save America if they have a big day in a few weeks.
It's situations like this where I tend to agree with Kirk Herbstreet's "+1" system.  Take the top four teams and have a mini-playoff.  I mean Kansas could stay undefeated and still end up #4 in the polls depending on the votes.  Also, the whole system of ranking is slightly fallable because the polls are voted by people who have their own bias as to which teams are the best.
Pac 10 never got the recognition it deserved in the eyes of the BCS voters.  The likes of Notre Dame and Nebraska will continue to get the breaks in the eyes of the voters because of their "tradition", which amounts to nothing. (I mean, why is a team like Notre Dame with a 1-8 record and worst offense in Div I college football on TV every weekend anyway?)  Schools like Boise State and Hawaii will never get a chance to play for the national championship even if they go undefeated every year for the next ten years.  That's the reality of college football.  Please, let's just scrap this whole nonsense altogether and have a playoff.
Oregon really has no shot unless others lose, and the likelyhood of being hopped over is very real. As a West Coast team, Oregon is playing half or more of its games after all the East Coast voters go to bed, and basically to the East Coast folks USC is the ONLY real legitimate football power in the PAC 10, so Oregon will find it a tough road, and that is a shame. It amazes me that the doormat of the Big 12 for years can suddenly have a good year and get raved about, yet a good football team like Oregon who has been good for years doesn't hardly elicit a word from the ESPNer's or anybody else. All I can say is Oregon needs to start scheduling the Boston Colleges, Virgina's, some SEC teams, and perhaps a few Big 10 teams too, and then they may get both seen and their due.
Enough with a conference championship game.  Give credit to the Pac-10 for playing everyone in their conference.  The Big 12 and SEC don't.  Instead of scheduling an extra game against  LA Tech, FIU or the power house of Troy, the Pac 10 must play everyone.  The conference champ. game is for the networks to make more money.  It is the Pac-10 champ that deserves the most respect.
The whole scenario depends on the press generated concerning the teams involved.  The SEC gets billed as the toughest conferance, primarily because of the Florida/Ohio State game last year.  Everyone ignored the fact that the other two bowl matchups between the SEC an Big Ten were won by the Big Ten and the Big Ten teams were ranked lower in their conferance than SEC teams were in their conferance.
Same stupid thing might happen with the Heisman. Not saying Joey should have been the winner, but I do know for a fact that he should not have been 4th. He meant more to his school then any of the other candidates. I just hope they dont screw Dennis Dixon over and give it to Tebow who has 3 losses or McFaddin who had a horrible start. Dixon has played well and consistent the whole year!
None of this will matter as LSU (with the most talent of all Division 1 schools) will stumble before the end of the year and the Lloyd Carr led Michigan Wolverines will FINALLY beat Ohio State.  Oregon vs. Kansas in the BCS Championship is on the horizon......as long as the Ducks can avoid the upset bug against the Rollercoaster ride that IS the UCLA Bruins!
While the PAC10 does not play a season ending conference championship, all teams play each of the other 9 in every regular season for a true conference champion.  The Big10 (11) plays 8 others, and no conference championship.  Other major conferences such as the Big12 get fat on weak non-conference opponents that replace the opportunity to play conference games.  (Who wouldn't like this year's 4 nonconference opponents of Kansas?)  The SEC champ will play a total of 9 conference opponents if in the conference championship, but another SEC team could play 8 and still be in a BCS game.
If the Ducks hadn't fumbled away the opportunity to remain unbeaten against a suspect Cal Bears team, all these "what if's?" would be rendered mute.  Bottom line, U of O might get squeezed, but it's their own fault if they do.
I'm very worried at this point about how the Ducks are going to get a shot at the title. They seem to be the best team out there, but they get no respect (see Tamanaha's column last week where he predicted they would lose against ASU). This team deserves a chance to prove how good they are on a football field. It looks like the only thing that can stop Oregon are bias polls and arrogant eastern sports writers that only follow the Big 10 and the SEC.
Oklahoma lost out on the national chapionship game last year because of the onside kick game against the Ducks.  This year, the Ducks will loose out because of the flukey game agaisnt Cal.
East coast bias or SEC bias....someone needs to remember when everyone from the SEC was stating that Tennessee was going to pound Cal and was too quick at the start of the season and look what happened.....Tennessee is ranked with all their losses and Cal is not......whats fair....that is the question
The fallacy in faulting Oregon (and the Pac-10) for not playing a conference championship game (CCG) is that the Pac-10 is a round-robin, i.e. they play everyone in their conference, so there's no need for a CCG.

The SEC could do this, but those teams prefer to pad their schedules with out-of-conference patsies:

South Carolina: Louisiana-Lafayette, South Carolina State, North Carolina
Florida: Western Kentucky, Troy
Mississippi State: Tulane, Gardner-Webb, UAB
Kentucky: Eastern Kentucky, Kent State, Louisville, Florida Atlantic
Alabama: Houston, Western Carolina
Auburn: Kansas State, New Mexico State
LSU: Virginia Tech, M. Tenn. St., Tulane, La. Tech.

I mean seriously, is that a joke?

Oregon's 3 out-of-conference opponents (Michigan, Houston, Fresno State) all have winning records and will likely all play in bowl games.
Has anyone thought that the future NFL players for USC are playing not to get hurt. They sure do not want to have an injury that will exclude them from a NFL contract. May this is why USC has not played up to there skill level? Maybe they are looking forward and not to the present?
I agree with verasoie. Everyone in the media is comparing the overall schedules played by LSU and Oregon. I think, though, that more emphasis should be placed on the non-conference schedule to some degree because that is where the school has more say in who they play. Everyone says LSU plays a tougher schedule, but they didn't try to and it appears that Oregon put more effort into doing so.

I think it should be LSU needing Oregon to lose to have a shot at the title and not vice versa.

Then again, if Kansas runs the table (which I doubt) they, in my opinion, would be more deserving than either the Ducks or the Tigers simply because they did get through a good Big XII conference and nobody have been able to beat them.
didn't oregon lose to byu last year, like 30-3 in their bowl game.  Mabey byu is getting screwed.
Ohio State had a cupcake non-conf schedule, but the fact of the matter is they continue to win.  We have yet to lose to a team this year that we were suppose to beat, and that is what college football is all about now.  If not for those ahead of us losing to teams that they shouldn't have, we wouldn't be in this position.  The same goes for UO, except they lost a game that in hind sight, they shouldn't have.  You can hate OSU all you want, and talk about the schedules all you want, but unless you continue to win and beat the teams you're suppose to, you will be shut out.
All this talk about Bias.. While it maybe true is still a mute point.. As long as the East Coast Writers and coaches look at the PAC10 as a weak conference (LOL) no one from the PAC will get credit for anything.. I remember when Oregon State took LSU to Overtime and only lost the game because a Freshman kicker missed 2 extra points in Regulation and a field goal in overtime.. LSU gets style points for beating Louisanna Tech LOL come on.. I also remember when Oregon State got snubbed and had to play Notre Dame and stomped the Irish.. Unless Oregon wins big all three of its remaining games they will get snubbed. But Kansas is the one who is really getting the shaft this year just like Boise State really got the shaft last year..
Oregon has a college team....wow....didn't know that. Knew they had a pretty good high school team.
Hey Nashville Ron.....do you watch professional football....bet you don't know how many OREGON players there are......get your head out of the moonshine and act like a REAL football fan!!!!

Bottom line, dump the BCS!!!!


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